Friday, September 14, 2007

NFL Picks

Hey Peeps and anyone else checking in. A special "Hey" goes out to Hazel Mae if she is checking in.

For those of you checking in to see Tilt's selection for Friday's Fox - he posted it last night...scroll down.

We are going to start posting NFL Picks on Friday - hopefully Tilt will follow suit. Last week was a pretty good week in the spreads pool - we were 10-6 for 101 points. We were 11-5 straight up for 86 points, Jacksonville and Philadelphia hurt us last week. In terms of the Three Play - we were 4-2 in games we picked (we didn't get on last Sunday to suggest Dallas over the Giants- too bad). This week's picks - both pools weighted, with straight up pool subtracting points for incorrect selections.


16) BALTIMORE -4.5 over NY Jets - the spreads were locked in Wednesday, we know its 10 now. The word is that Pennington won't be playing - the Jets have no chance to stay close in this one.

15) New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY - the Saints should rebound after an awful game in Indy - they've had 11 days to think about how bad they were. Tampa Bay's defense might keep it close early on, but the Saints will wear them down and blow things open in the second half.

14) Cincinnati -6.5 over CLEVELAND - the Browns couldn't control Roethlisberger and the Steelers - things are only going to get worse against Carson Palmer and "Ocho Cinco". After facing the Ravens on Monday night, Palmer is going to think he's back in the PAC 10 against the Browns. Bengals score at least 34 points - can the Browns come close with their new starting QB? Don't think so.

13) CHICAGO -11.5 over Kansas City - still no word on whether or not Hazel is still a Chiefs fan - so we're going against KC. We don't think Larry Johnson can throw a TD pass - so the Chiefs options are limited. Rex Grossman has a field day against a weak Chiefs D.

12) JACKSONVILLE -10.5 over Atlanta - Jack Del Rio promises that the Jags will be better this week - he has challenged his D to step up...that's bad news for "Happy Feet" Harrington who had a tough day against the Vikings. Things are about to get a lot worse for Atlanta...we wonder if Ron Mexico is smiling.

11) Dallas -3.5 over MIAMI - the Dolphins had trouble containing Washington's running game when they were keying on it, Terrell is going to have a big game if they try it this week. Dallas has too much on the offensive side of the ball and more than enough on the defensive side to keep the Dolphins to 10 points or less. Dallas wins big this week.

10) PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Washington - the Eagles signed Reno Mahe, which means they won't be fumbling any punts. Andy Reid will have the Eagles ready to atone for last week's terrible performance in Green Bay. The Eagles will play field position and take advantage of a bad Redskins offence to score on a short field.

09) DETROIT -3.5 over Minnesota - The Lions should be able to score through the air against the Vikings - we don't think the Vikings have enough on the offensive side of the ball to keep this close. We're not big fans of Jon Kitna - but we'll take him over Tavaris Jackson.

08) DENVER -9.5 over Oakland - the good news for the Broncos is that Daunte Culpepper will start for the Raiders - enough said. Culpepper is good for at least one fumble and a couple of INTs, that should be enough for the Broncos to cover easily.

07) Green Bay -1.5 over NY GIANTS - Brett Favre should have a good day against a Giants D that is banged up - Eli Manning is questionable. We may downgrade Green Bay from 7 points - but we are still taking them to win - the Giants are too banged up to stay in this one.

06) ST. LOUIS -3.5 over San Francisco - Steven Jackson won't fumble twice this week and Mark Bulger and Co. should challenge the 49ers D a lot more than Matt Leinhart did. The 49ers won on Monday, but they were lucky - a half decent team would have crushed them. The Rams won't start the season 0-2 with two home losses - they just won't.

05) NEW ENGLAND -3.5 over San Diego - everything points to trouble in New England, which is usually when Tom Brady takes charge and leads his team to a win. Phillip Rivers' options may be limited with talk of Antonio Gates' back spasms. Patriots won't lose in front of a national audience on Sunday night.

04) ARIZONA +3.5 over Seattle - we don't trust Seattle on the road, this one looks like a back door cover. Arizona's hard hitting defense might give Seattle some problems.

03) Houston +6.5 over CAROLINA - we aren't buying the hype on Carolina, it is still all about Steve Smith; only this week, the Texans will be getting to Delhomme a lot quicker than the Rams did. The Panthers will win - but not by 7.

02) Buffalo -9.5 over PITTSBURGH - we like Buffalo's D to keep this one relatively close...the Bills may rally around the injury to Kevin Everett to come up with a surprise or two for the Steelers.

01) TENNESEE +7.5 over Indianapolis - another game that looks like a great candidate for a back door cover. The Colts have historically had trouble with the Titans - look for the Titans to do what the Saints wouldn't...RUN THE DAMN BALL.


16) CHICAGO over Kansas City - no public display of support from Hazel, none from us.

15) JACKSONVILLE over Atlanta - "Happy Feet" Harrington won't live up to his name on Sunday.

14) Baltimore over NY Jets - Brian Billick got a package in the mail from Bill Belichick.

13) DENVER over Oakland - Daunte Culpepper is starting for Oakland, enough said.

12) Cincinnati over Cleveland - Carson Palmer will bring a lot more than Roethlisberger did.

11) PITTSBURGH over Buffalo - Bills have D to keep it close, they don't have O to put them over the top.

10) New Orleans over TAMPA BAY - Terrell Owens said Jeff Garcia doesn't like Bush - true story!

09) CAROLINA over Houston - Panthers win...not by much.

08) PHILADELPHIA over Washington - whatever...they'll still be a game back of Big D.

07) Dallas over MIAMI - too much of everything for Dallas.

06) Indianapolis over TENNESSEE - Colts are ready for the Titans this time around.

05) ST. LOUIS over San Francisco - 49ers about to find out that Bulger knows how to use his weapons much more effectively than Matt Leinhart.

04) DETROIT over Minnesota - we like the Lions a lot, but there are better picks straight up.

03) NEW ENGLAND over San Diego - see explanation for Lions.

02) Green Bay over NY GIANTS - we don't think the Giants have enough to get it done, but...

01) ARIZONA over Seattle - just because we hate Holmgren.

Toronto Blue Jays P AJ "The Enigma" Burnett pitched eight strong innings yesterday - limiting the Yankees to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight. This guy is money when there is nothing to play for. J.P. Ricciardi is patting himself on the back for that $55M deal - he's got Burnett penned in as the number 2 starter next year...for those of you counting, that will be year seven of "the five year plan".

Red Sox West 1B James Loney had three hits and drove in four runs to lead the Dodgers to a 6-3 win over the San Diego Padres. 1.5 games out of the Wild Card...they keep sucking us back in - the Red Sox vs Red Sox West World Series lives.

Red Sox West P David Wells started by pitching five scoreless innings and left after giving up three runs in the sixth in the Dodgers win. Wells beat the team that released him, limiting them to 4 hits and a walk while striking out three. Wells also had two hits off of Greg Maddux - the first multi-hit game of his 21 year career.

We should have known better than to trust an Anaheim based team - still though, we finished the night 2-1 and + $10 for the night. The total for the week is + $155. Today's suggestions:

San Diego over San Francisco - Chris Young goes for the Padres tonight and we expect him to rebound from his last start (3 runs in 5 innings) - Barry Zito goes for the Giants, who are playing out the string. Lay $100 on the Padres - $160.

Red Sox West over Arizona - Brad Penny's career numbers against the DBacks are solid 7-3 with an ERA of 1.96 , he gets the nod over Doug Davis. Lay $100 on the Dodgers - $165.

Chicago over St. Louis - the Big Z goes for Chicago and his season and career numbers against the Cards are pretty good - Adam Wainwright's numbers against the Cubs are ugly. Lay $100 on the Cubs $115.

Cleveland over Kansas City - C.C. Sabathia takes the mound against Brian Bannister - too big of a mismatch to ignore. Lay $100 on the Indians -$215.

Detroit/Minnesota over 10 - Nate Robertson has been getting pounded lately and Twins starter Matt Garza hasn't been much better over his last few starts - this one should have a lot of runs. Lay $100 in the over at even money.

That's it for this morning gang - thanks for taking the time to check in. Have a great one peeps.

Hazel, we hope things are groovy in your world.

We're Out.


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