Saturday, November 10, 2007

Week 10 NFL Picks

Hey Peeps and anyone else checking in. A special "Hey" goes out to Hazel Mae if she is checking in.

Before we get to this week's picks - we have to talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs and their 3-0 win over the Sabres last night in Buffalo. The score was not indicative of the play last night, but turnabout is fair play. The Leafs have dominated the Sabres in their last few trips there - only to see two goal lead go poof.

Last night it was the Sabres that dominated the early part of the game; had it not been for Andrew Raycroft standing on his head in the first, the Leafs would have been blown out. Raycroft's performance was by far his best of the season. The Leafs were also outplayed for most of the second and were lucky to get a goal with less than a minute left in the period by Leaf Nation's favourite whipping boy Bryan McCabe. The goal seemed to give the boys in blue some life as they came out and took it to the Sabres. A goal by Mats Sundin made it 2-0 and pretty much sealed the game. Boyd Devereaux scored the third goal late in the period to put it away.

Some so-called "experts" picked the Sabres to be a force again this year - even without Daniel Briere and Chris Drury - we didn't buy it then and we certainly aren't buying it now. The Sabres may be fast, they may be quick, they may be physical (cough cough - at home - cough cough) but they have no finishers in the offensive zone and they have NO heart...a reflection of their coach.

The Sabres were counting on last year's second and third liners to progress from their breakout seasons last year (Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Paul Gaustad) - the only problem is that their success was achieved playing against the third and fourth lines and third defensive pairings; they are finding it pretty tough to go against the opposition's top players. Buffalo will NOT make the playoffs this year, and we couldn't be happier about it.

On to this week's picks. Last week was ugly - serves us right for check the "experts" picks. We are going back to picking the games without looking at others' picks. We expect some dogs to cover and, in more than one case, win the game outright.

16) Indianapolis -3.5 over SAN DIEGO - Manning and the Colts will be looking to make someone pay after dropping one to the Patriots last week. San Diego has gotten themselves back into playoff contention - but they aren't anywhere close to being the team they were last year. The Colts are going to pummel the Chargers on Sunday.

15) Detroit +1.5 over ARIZONA - the Lions are playing as well as they can right now, the offence is making plays and the defence is finally playing good football. The Lions should be able to get some big plays against an Arizona D that is prone to giving up some big plays early and falling behind. Who would have thought the Lions would ever be a 15 point pick.

14) Dallas -1.5 over NY GIANTS - the Giants are counterfeit - those applauding the play of the Giants defence over the last six weeks seem to forget they haven't played anyone with an offence half as good as Dallas'. We'll take Romo/Owens/Barber over Manning/Burress/Jacobs.

13) KANSAS CITY -4.5 over Denver - both teams will likely be missing their most important player on offence; the Chiefs can turn to Priest Holmes to fill in for Larry Johnson - the Broncos might have to turn to Patrick Ramsey...ugh. Denver is downright awful, tough to see them winning at Arrowhead. For those wondering, Hazel rule still in effect - we just think the Chiefs have enough to win.

12) TENNESSEE -4.5 over Jacksonville - the Jags will play with eight in the box and try to put the game in Vince Young's hands; the Titans will do the same thing and force Quinn Gray to make plays. If you had to choose between Young and Gray, who would you choose? We thought so...Titans win.

11) Cincinnati -5.5 over BALTIMORE - the Ravens are brutal; that offence is so bad they'll make the Bengals look like Pro-Bowlers. The Bengals have been a huge disappointment (just ask Tilt) but Carson Palmer will find a way to get enough offence to cover...if not win it outright.

10) Cleveland +8.5 over PITTSBURGH - we still think the Steelers are counterfeit; they're good, but they aren't anywhere near the level of the Patriots or the Colts - they can be had. We like Cleveland's offence to keep this one close...backdoor cover a real possibility in this one.

09) NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over St. Louis - the Saints offence has finally gotten things together, which is not very good news for a Rams defence that has been given up huge plays in the second half. The Rams are getting Jackson back - but it won't be enough. Saints roll in this one

08) Minnesota +6.5 over GREEN BAY - two teams with good defences and one-dimensional offences. The Vikings should be able to control the ball with Adrian Peterson, thus keeping Favre & Co. off the field. Remember, the Pack have been ordinary at home over the last couple of years.

07) Buffalo -3.5 over MIAMI - the Bills recent history in winning games to put them over .500 is ugly, but they won't blow this one against the Dolphins. Buffalo will put the game in Marshawn Lynch's hands and play field position against the anemic Dolphins.

06) Chicago -3.5 over OAKLAND - the Bears are coming off a bye week, so they should be fired up on Sunday. All we know is that the Raiders aren't very good.

05) Philadelphia +2.5 over WASHINGTON - we hate them both, but we can't see an offence lead by Jason Campbell getting it done against a decent Eagles D. McNabb will probably look like a champ on Sunday - ugh.

04) Atlanta +4.5 over CAROLINA - Panthers haven't won at home this year and have issues at QB - Atlanta has enough to cover in this one.

03) San Francisco +9.5 over SEATTLE - the Seahawks offence isn't what it used to be. We think San Fran gets a backdoor cover in this one.

Toronto Maple Leafs G Andrew Raycroft stopped 30 shots in a 3-0 win over the Sabres - Razor was unbelievable last night.

Toronto Maple Leafs C Mats Sundin had a goal and an assist in last night's win - he had a tough night in the face-off circle, but he willed his team to win.

Vancouver Canucks winger Henrik Sedin had both goals in a 2-1 overtime win over Colorado.

We had a tough night last night with most of the favourites winning. The total for the week is - $145.

Carolina over ATLANTA
- the Canes will be facing a Thrashers team that won last night in Florida - they'll be looking to make up for an ugly loss on Thursday against the Lightning. Lay $100 on the Canes - $145.

SAN JOSE over Phoenix - its time for the Coyotes to remember that they are the Coyotes. San Jose gets it done tonight at the shark tank. Lay $100 on the Sharks - $200.

Montreal over OTTAWA - the Tards are due for a bit of a letdown, the Habs will get it done tonight with their power play. Note, it looks like the Tards are going with Ray Emery again tonight. Lay $100 on Montreal +$165.

CALGARY over Edmonton - the Battle of Alberta is always entertaining, but the Oilers go into this one unable to match up with the Flames at every position. Lay $100 on the Flames - $240.

That's it for today gang - thanks for taking the time to check in. Have a great one peeps.

Hazel, we hope things are groovy in your world.

We're Out!


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